The Week 12 college football slate is mostly bare when it comes to battles between ranked teams but there are still a trio of noteworthy matchups that could have College Football Playoff implications. Two of those three games are in the Pac-12.
Below you’ll find betting information on each showdown with odds, trends and edges.
No. 4 TCU (10-0, 8-1-1 ATS) vs. Baylor (6-4, 6-4 ATS)
Moneyline: TCU -145, Baylor +125
Spread: TCU -2.5
I was initially surprised to see this line at just 2.5 given TCU just beat Texas despite being a 7.5-road underdog. Baylor is coming off of an embarrassing 31-3 home loss against Kansas State. So maybe the betting community is seeing this as a letdown spot for the Horned Frogs.
I’m not sure how realistic that narrative is given TCU is in must-win mode from now until the regular season in order to remain in the College Football Playoff picture. TCU is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams and 3-2. ATS.
Offensively and defensively, there aren’t major edges for either side. TCU has the more prolific offense that ranks eighth in scoring and 12th in total yards compared to Baylor’s that ranks 25th and 34th in those two categories, respectively. The defenses are in the same ballpark, though the Horned Frogs impressively are coming off of an incredible performance, holding the Longhorns offense to just 10 points.
No. 7 USC (9-1, 6-4 ATS) vs. No. 16 UCLA (8-2, 6-4 ATS)
Moneyline: USC -130, UCLA +100
Spread: USC -2.5
The first of two marque Pac-12 matchups features the two Southern California blue bloods that are each set to depart for the Big-10 in the coming years. USC controls its own destiny for a Rose Bowl berth but additionally still has hope for a bid into the College Football Playoff.
The Trojans lone defeat came to Utah, a 43-42 heartbreaker on the road. USC has a trio of wins against Arizona, California and Colorado since that loss. UCLA is coming off a crushing 34-28 home loss to Arizona. It’s the Bruins second loss in four games as they also lost 45-30 at Oregon on Oct. 22. USC is 3-2 in the last five meetings between these two teams but UCLA owns the ATS advantage at 3-2.
As the ridiculous total of 76.0 would suggest, the offenses have the huge edges here. UCLA ranks fifth in total yards against a USC defense that ranks 87th in yards allowed. USC’s offense ranks seventh in total yards against a UCLA defense that ranks 72nd in yards allowed.
This expected back-and-forth affair will likely have you feeling like you were on the right side of this game no matter how it ends.
No. 10 Utah (8-2, 6-4) vs. No. 12 Oregon (8-2, 7-3)
Moneyline: Utah +135, Oregon -160
Spread: Oregon -3.0
Oregon remains at home for a second straight weekend with another huge conference matchup. The Ducks lost a heartbreaker last Saturday against Washington and will look to rebound against the Utes.
Utah has won four straight since its loss at UCLA, beating USC, Washington State, Arizona and Stanford. The Utes are far more dominant at home than on the road, and so it makes sense to see Oregon favored in this one. Utah is 3-2 in the last five meetings against Oregon while the winner of each has managed to cover the spread. Most of these games have been blowouts with the home team winning on all five occasions. Only one of the last five matchups has been decided by one score with the other four featuring at least 20-point margins of victory.
Utah’s offense against Oregon’s defense is the biggest edge ahead of this Saturday’s showdown. Utah ranks 22nd in total yards and 47th in passing yards against an Oregon defense that ranks 91st in total yards allowed and 127th in passing yards allowed. However, Utah’s home vs. road splits makes this much more of a coin toss.