Oregon is a 13.5-point favorite this weekend against Washington.
Oregon is a 13.5-point favorite this weekend against Washington.

College Football Week 11 Betting Cheat Sheet: Breaking Down Every Key Matchup

Alabama’s loss last Saturday to LSU opened the door for some fresh blood in this year’s College Football Playoff. Two of the teams that will be vying for a spot in the top four have marquee matchups this weekend.

Here’s a look at the top games of Week 11 including betting odds, notes and edges.

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No. 10 Alabama (7-2, 5-4 ATS) vs. No. 11 Mississippi (8-1, 3-5-1 ATS)

Moneyline: Alabama -460, Mississippi +340

Spread: Alabama -12.0

Total: 63.5

The Crimson Tide no longer control their own destiny in their hunt for a spot in the CFP. Last week’s loss to LSU marked Alabama’s second defeat of the season, the first coming against Tennessee.

Ole Miss’ lone loss came to LSU two weeks ago. Beyond that, the Rebels have been able to win one-score games against inferior opponents, indicated by their ATS record. Ole Miss has just one win ATS in its last six games.

Alabama has won the last six meetings between these two teams. Four of those spreads were above 20 points and two were above 30. Ole Miss is 3-3 ATS in those six games against the Crimson Tide.

The Rebels are respectable with an 16th-ranked scoring offense and 35th-ranked scoring defense.

Alabama has the slight edge in every category, but the Crimson Tide have been far more mortal this season than we’re accustomed to.

No. 22 UCF (7-2, 6-3 ATS) vs. No. 16 Tulane (8-1, 8-1 ATS)

Moneyline: UCF +110, Tulane -130

Spread: Tulane -2.0

Total: 55.0

We’ve got one heck of a matchup on our hands atop the American Athletic Conference this weekend. UCF is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams, but Tulane is 4-1 ATS.

UCF has won a pair of impressive games back-to-back against Cincinnati and Memphis, covering the spread as a 2.5-point favorite on each occasion. Tulsa has been dominant with five straight wins both straight up and ATS.

This matchup is evenly matched statistically without a notable edge on either side. Both defenses rank in the top 20 in scoring against offenses that rank 27th in scoring (UCF) and 38th in scoring (Tulane).

Given that each defense allows fewer than 20 points per game and theoretically has a statistical edge against the offenses in this game, maybe under 55.0 could be the way to bet this matchup.

No. 24 Washington (7-2, 4-5 ATS) vs. No. 6 Oregon (8-1, 7-2 ATS)

Moneyline: Washington +400, Oregon -555

Spread: Oregon -13.5

Total: 72.5

Oregon has won three straight games against Washington and has largely dominated the matchups between the two schools for more than a decade. The Huskies have won three straight games after their pair of losses to UCLA and Arizona State, but failed to cover the spread against Arizona, California or Oregon State.

The Ducks have covered in five straight games on their warpath through the Pac-12 conference. Oregon’s lone loss of the season game in a neutral site blowout against Georgia to open the season.

The total tells you everything about how this game is expected to go in a matchup that features the No. 4 scoring offense (Oregon) and the No. 13 scoring offense (Washington).

Washington’s biggest edge is its first-ranked passing offense against Oregon’s 117th-ranked passing defense. The Huskies are high-powered enough on offense to keep the back door open even if the Ducks dominate most of the game.

Oregon has a trio of tough games left with Utah and Oregon State up next prior to the Pac-12 Championship Game. Should the Ducks run the table, they’ll likely find themselves with a big in the CFP.

No. 4 TCU (9-0, 7-1-1 ATS) vs. No. 18 Texas (6-3, 6-3 ATS)

Moneyline: TCU +225, Texas -280

Spread: Texas -7.0

Total: 64.5

It’s incredible to see the No. 4 team in the country getting a touchdown as a huge road underdog. TCU has won three straight games by exactly 10 points against Kansas State, West Virginia and Texas Tech. Texas is coming off of an impressive seven-point road win at Kansas State.

TCU is 3-2 in the last five meetings between these two teams, and the winning team has covered in all five games. The Horned frogs have a huge edge offensively, ranking fourth in total yards and 22nd in passing yards against a Longhorns defense that ranks 74th in total yards allowed and 102nd in passing yards allowed.

Texas is getting a ton of respect as the home team in this year’s meeting. Statistically, there isn’t an obvious edge that Texas has over TCU.