Will C.J. Stroud and the Buckeyes cover as 18-point favorites at home against the Badgers?
Will C.J. Stroud and the Buckeyes cover as 18-point favorites at home against the Badgers?

College Football Week 4 Betting Cheat Sheet: Breaking Down Every Key Matchup

It’s time to look at the Week 4 slate in college football, and there are a handful of notable matchups to run through in our weekly betting guide as conference play begins around the country.

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(5) Clemson (3-0) at (21) Wake Forest (3-0)

Moneyline: Clemson -290, Wake Forest +230

Spread: Clemson -7.5

Total: 55.5

The Demon Deacons are getting more than a touchdown as a home underdog this weekend against a Clemson team that is 1-2 ATS out of the gate. Wake Forest has a higher scoring offense, averaging 42 points per game and just barely above Clemson’s 41.3. The edge for the Tigers comes on defense. Clemson is allowing just 14 points per game compared to Wake Forest’s 23.7. The Tigers run defense has conceded just 71 yards per game on the ground. That edge is minimized by the fact that Wake Forest is a pass-first team, averaging 306.3 passing yards per game compared to 128 on the ground.

(20) Florida (2-1) vs. (11) Tennessee (3-0)

Moneyline: Florida +300, Tennessee -380

Spread: Tennessee -10.5

Total: 62.5

Florida has absolutely dominated this rivalry for almost two decades, winning 16 of the last 17 meetings dating back to 2005. This one will get the College Gameday treatment with ESPN’s crew heading for Knoxville. The Vols are a perfect 3-0 ATS so far this season while Florida is 1-2. After an impressive win to open the year at home against then 13th-ranked Utah, the Gators have suffered a double digit home loss to Kentucky and narrowly escaped with a three-point win against South Florida at home.

The edge offensively is immense for Tennessee. The Vols average 553.7 yards per game (third-most in FBS) compared to Florida’s 353. Tennessee’s defense also allows fewer yards per game (344.7-373.3). It’s understandable why Tennessee is such a monster favorite, meaning it will be excruciating for Vols fans if they come up short against Florida once again.

(10) Arkansas (3-0) vs. (23) Texas A&M (2-1)

Moneyline: Arkansas +120, Texas A&M -145

Spread: Texas A&M -2.5

Total: 48.5

Vibes aren’t exactly high right now in College Station. The Aggies bounced back after the Appalachian State disaster to beat Miami at home, but it was still a lackluster performance that wasn’t indicative of a team turning into a budding powerhouse. Arkansas’ defense isn’t going to scare anybody, allowing 421 yards and 27 points per game, but the Razorbacks offense is posting 500.3 yards per game and 37.7 points. It will be strength on strength against a Texas A&M defense that has given up just 8.7 points per game (T-8 FBS) in the early going.

(22) Texas (2-1) at Texas Tech (2-1)

Moneyline: Texas -250, Texas Tech +200

Spread: Texas -7

Total: 59.5

Texas is a perfect 3-0 ATS thus far, which of course includes nearly beating Alabama a few weeks back. The Red Raiders continue to score at a high rate (36.7 points per game), and their defense has made impressive strides in 2022 (293.7 yards and 22.3 points per game allowed). Texas allows fewer points (16.7) but more yards (347). A matchup to watch is Texas’ running game (170.3 rushing yards per game) against an impressive Red Raiders run defense (82.7 rushing yards per game allowed). Texas Tech’s chances of covering will likely depend on turnovers. The Red Raiders have an egregious -5 turnover differential (T-123rd in FBS) through three games with eight total giveaways.

(7) USC (3-0) at Oregon State (3-0)

Moneyline: USC -260, Oregon State +210

Spread: USC -6.5

Total: 69.5

Each of these teams are a perfect 3-0 ATS. USC’s offense is an absolute juggernaut. The Trojans have racked up 520 yards and 50.7 points per game (7th in FBS) through three weeks. Oregon State is right behind them, though, with 468.3 yards and 45.7 point per game. Neither team is stellar defensively, so it really just depends on whether you have faith in the Beavers as a home underdog against a team with far more talent from a recruiting standpoint, including quarterback and Heisman Trophy candidate Caleb Williams.

Wisconsin (2-1) at (3) Ohio State (3-0)

Moneyline: Wisconsin +600, Ohio State -900

Spread: Ohio State -18

Total: 57.0

The Buckeyes are just 1-2 against the spread, albeit when trying to cover monster spreads. Wisconsin’s only test thus far was at home against Washington State, a game they lost 17-14 to the Cougars. Ohio State’s one test came in Week 1 in a 21-10 win over Notre Dame. You have to imagine that in a strength-on-strength matchup (Wisconsin’s defense is allowing just eight points per game vs. Ohio State’s offense averaging 565.3 yards per game), the edge goes to the Buckeyes. The issue with a big spread is that, for the most part, the backdoor always remains open.