Dak Prescott and the Cowboys will play the Vikings on Sunday.
Dak Prescott and the Cowboys will play the Vikings on Sunday.

Cowboys vs. Vikings Week 11: How You Should Bet the Showdown

The Cowboys will travel to U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 11 to play the Vikings in the undisputed marquee matchup of the weekend. Below you’ll find betting information, offense vs. defense edges and my suggested play for what figures to be an exciting back-and-forth affair.

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Line open: pick-em, 47

Current line: Cowboys -1.5, 47.5

Tickets: 53% Cowboys, 66% over

Handle: 58% Cowboys, 58% over

Cowboys record: 6-3, 6-3 ATS

Vikings record: 8-1, 4-4-1 ATS

L5 head-to-head: Cowboys 4-1, Vikings 3-2 ATS

Offense vs. Defense

Cowboys offense:

-- 20th in total yards

-- 26th in passing yards

-- 8th in rushing yards

-- 11th in scoring

Vikings defense:

-- 29th in total yards allowed

--29th in passing yards allowed

--16th in rushing yards allowed

-- 14th in scoring

Cowboys defense:

-- 12th in total yards allowed

-- 4th in passing yards allowed

-- 29th in rushing yards allowed

-- 5th in scoring

Vikings offense:

-- 11th in total yards

-- 7th in passing yards

-- 23rd in rushing yards

-- 8th in scoring

Summary:

Different advanced analytics favor different teams in what is a hard game to handicap. The Cowboys rank fourth in total DVOA compared to the Vikings at 17th. However, when you look at overall PFF grade, the Vikings rank fourth and the Cowboys rank 12th in the NFL.

Dallas is coming off a loss to Green Bay after blowing a 14-point fourth quarter lead and finally falling in overtime. The Cowboys got ripped up for 207 rushing yards in the process. Aaron Jones racked up 138 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries. That should bode well for Dalvin Cook, who has been impressive this season with five games of at least 90 rushing yards.

Offensively the Cowboys fell flat in the fourth quarter after humming for most of the game at Lambeau Field. CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard each balled out with three total touchdowns.

The Vikings have been the cardiac kids with five fourth quarter comebacks during their seven-game winning streak, none crazier than last week’s thrilling victory against the Bills. Justin Jefferson has carried Minnesota’s passing game, thought T.J. Hockenson has been a nice pickup with 16 catches in two games since being acquired at the trade deadline.

Minnesota’s late-game heroics coupled with Dallas’ collapse last week could lend itself to more fourth quarter madness in this one.

The play:

Cowboys -0.5 1H

I believe the Cowboys are the better team with the more complete offense and superior pass rush. The best way to avoid any fourth quarter headaches it to make a first half play. Truth be told I’d prefer to just watch this game and avoid the expected back-and-forth madness.

Minnesota has the edge in the running game but Dallas should have no issue moving the football against a Vikings defense that ranks 29th in total yards allowed.