The Cowboys should be able to handle the Giants on Thursday.
The Cowboys should be able to handle the Giants on Thursday.

NFL Thanksgiving 2022: Best Bets and Predictions for Thursday

My NFL best bets have been doomed for three weeks running, and so I’m hoping for some holiday magic to turn the tides for me. In Week 11, I lost on a walk-off punt return (Jets -3) and a quarterback leaving with a concussion (Rams +4.5). I went 1-2 on the week overall with the 49ers -4.5 1H getting home on Monday night.

I’ll have two best bet articles this week, one for Thanksgiving and one for the main weekend slate. I have a play for all three NFL games on Thursday.

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Best Bets:

(19-20-1)

1. Bills-Lions o54.0

Buffalo will feel like home in Detroit with a second straight game at Ford Field. The Lions have impressively won three games in a row against the Packers, Bears and Giants. The Bills defense has been leaky of late and got dominated in the trenches early on against the Browns in Week 11.

Detroit quietly ranks 12th in PFF’s offense grades and has posted at least 27 points in three of its last four games. Buffalo has allowed at least 20 points in its last three games. However, I don’t think the Lions will provide little resistance against the Bills offense. There should be points a plenty on Thursday morning.

2. Cowboys 1H -5.0 vs. Giants

I’m taking the backdoor cover out of play here and backing the home team on a short week that I also happen to think is vastly superior. We saw how dominant the Cowboys can be in their 40-3 win in Minneapolis on Sunday. Dallas has the better offense and defense compared to New York, and it isn’t particularly close on either side of the football. Tony Pollard has become a focal point of the Cowboys offense with three straight standout performances. He should continue to out-snap Ezekiel Elliott on Thanksgiving.

The only thing the Giants have going for them is the “you never know what will happen in divisional matchups” narrative. I’ll pass and back the better team instead.

3. Patriots-Vikings u44.5

Both of these teams failed to score an offensive touchdown in Week 11. Three-straight Patriots game have gone under this total. The Vikings will be without star tackle Christian Darrisaw after he picked up a second concussion in as many weeks. New England’s offense is limited and its defense should limit explosive plays from Minnesota’s offense. Even a 23-20 final would get us home. I could see it being far lower scoring than that.