It’s time to preview the marquee matchups of the NFL’s Week 11. Below you’ll find the top three games of the upcoming slate with betting information, trends and edges that might help you decide what to bet.
Tennessee Titans (7-3, 7-2 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (4-6, 4-6 ATS)
Moneyline: Titans +135, Packers -160
Spread: Packers -3.0
The Packers looked unrecognizable in their Week 10 win over the Cowboys compared to what they showed during their five-game losing streak. Green Bay’s running game was dominant, and Aaron Rodgers was as efficient as he’d been all season, connecting with rookie speedster Christian Watson for three touchdowns. Defensively the Packers were able to come up clutch and shutout the Cowboys over the entire fourth quarter and overtime.
Tennessee beat Denver last Sunday behind a 17-0 run to close the game. The Titans defense has been stout all season and didn’t allow a point in the second half against the Broncos. Tennessee has allowed 20 points or less in six straight games. That includes allowing just 20 points to the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium and holding the Colts, Texans and Broncos to just 10 points each.
Five straight Titans games have gone under 41.0. Prior to Sunday’s outburst vs. Dallas, Green Bay hadn’t scored 22 points or more since Week 5. Tennessee ranks 13th in total DVOA and Green Bay ranks 14th.
Dallas Cowboys (6-3, 6-3 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (8-1, 4-4-1 ATS)
Moneyline: Cowboys -125, Vikings +105
Spread: Cowboys -1.5
If you look strictly at Minnesota’s 8-1 record, it would appear that the Vikings are being severely disrespected as a home underdog. But the numbers begin to make sense when you consider some of the analytics.
The Vikings rank 17th in total DVOA, including 17th on offense and 19th on defense. Dallas ranks fourth overall with an offense that ranks 12th and a defense that ranks second.
Dallas’ issue is that its vaunted defense gave up 31 points in last Sunday’s loss to the Packers. Green Bay averaged 5.3 yards per carry with Aaron Jones exploding for 138 yards on 24 carries. That could bode well for Dalvin Cook in Week 11. Dallas was also burned by the speed of talented rookie wideout Christian Watson to the tune of four receptions for 107 yards and a trio of scores. Justin Jefferson should be able to feast, especially if Minnesota is able to keep him away from Trevon Diggs from time to time.
The Cowboys offense is as high powered as they come as Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb are coming off career games. A pair of Dak Prescott interceptions doomed Dallas at Lambeau Field.
Minnesota has overcome a fourth quarter deficit five times during its current seven-game winning streak. Sunday’s battle against Dallas is likely to be another back-and-forth affair.
Kansas City Chiefs (7-2, 3-5-1 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (5-4, 6-3 ATS)
Moneyline: Chargers +245, Chargers-300
Spread: Chiefs -6.5
The Chargers fought admirably in San Francisco last Sunday night and managed to cover in a narrow defeat. Brandon Staley expected hope that one or both of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen could be back in Week 11 against Kansas City. That, of course, doesn’t change the reality that reality that the Chargers defense remains decimated by injury.
It’s easy to look at the offensive and defensive numbers and assume Kansas City will dominate this game. The Chiefs rank fifth in total DVOA, and the Chargers rank 24th. Kansas City ranks first in points scored and second in total yards against a Los Angeles defense that ranks 29th and 20th in points allowed and yards allowed, respectively.
The Chargers one edge comes in the passing game against a Chiefs defense that ranks 25th in passing yards allowed. Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings against Kansas City.