The AFC Championship Game will feature the Chiefs hosting the Bengals from Arrowhead Stadium. Below you’ll find all the betting info you need as well as potential edges that might help you make your decision for who to tail in this exciting NFL Sunday clash.
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Line open: Pick-em, 47.0
Current line: Chiefs -1.0, 47.0
Tickets: 65.9% Bengals, 70% over
Handle: 57% Chiefs, 57.3% over
Bengals record: 14-4, 13-4-1 ATS
Chiefs record: 15-3, 5-12-1 ATS
Offense vs. Defense
-- 8th in total yards
-- 5th in passing yards
-- 29th in rushing yards
-- 7th in scoring
-- 11th in total yards allowed
-- 18th in passing yards allowed
-- 8th in rushing yards allowed
-- 16th in scoring
-- 16th in total yards allowed
-- 23rd in passing yards allowed
-- 7th in rushing yards allowed
-- 6th in scoring
-- 1st in total yards
-- 1st in passing yards
-- 20th in rushing yards
-- 1st in scoring
While the line in the NFC Championship Game hasn’t moved, this one has been all over the place. It opened as a pick-em with each team being two-point favorites at one point or another throughout the week. Now the Chiefs are back as favorites after Patrick Mahomes showed up to Wednesday’s practice without a limp. It’s up to you to decide whether or not you buy the idea that he’s anywhere near 100% less than a week after suffering a high-ankle sprain.
The Bengals defense ranked 23rd against the pass during the regular season, but that group appears to be surging in the postseason for a second-straight year after allowing just 10 points to the Bills last week. A lot of that is due to stellar defensive line play from Trey Hendrickson, Sam Hubbard and Co. Still, the Kansas City passing game should have some degree of an edge.
Cincinnati should also have an edge with its fifth-ranked passing game against Kansas City’s 18th-ranked pass defense. Those edges would suggest a shootout is coming.
I’m riding with Cincinnati regardless of Mahomes’ status. I believe in this team, especially now that an offensive line full of backups has shown to be more than capable of protecting Joe Burrow.
There’s a swagger and confidence with this team and that stems from Burrow’s calmness and stability. He’s an assassin who is unfazed by hostile environments. He has the ultimate big-game persona with a skill set to match.
The combination of Burrow, defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo and the rest of Cincinnati’s stars make me feel comfortable with this pick. It’s obviously no sure thing given how good the Chiefs are, but the Bengals haven’t beaten Kansas City three times over the last 13 months by accident.
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