The 2023-24 NFL season is upon us. The Hall of Fame game will kick off the postseason on August 3, 2023. Before you know it, the regular season kickoff will arrive about a month later.
With the summer in full swing, the WynnBET.com team is breaking down win totals in the NFL on a division-by-division basis. Be sure to read all about the NFC West Win Totals when betting on that division.
The AFC East is one of the most contentious divisions heading into the season, with all four teams having a path to success. However, three are more likely — the Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, and Miami Dolphins.
Interestingly, two free agents are on the market right now, running back Dalvin Cook and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who is rumored to land on one of these teams. Cook has been linked to the Jets and Dolphins, while Hopkins has a visit scheduled at the time of this writing with the Patriots and has been linked to the Bills for months.
Below, we’ll review each team’s over/under win totals and provide our best bet for each.
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AFC East Win Totals
Over 10.5 (-150)
Under 10.5 (+127)
2022 Record: 13-3
Between the snow storms, mass shooting in Buffalo in May 2022, and safety Damar Hamlin briefly passing away on an NFL football field, the Bills were dealt a difficult hand last season.
Roster-wise, the Bills have a similar roster to last season but did add O’Cyrus Torrence and Dalton Kincaid in the draft to help out on the offensive line and in the passing game, respectively.
The Bills still need a quality No. 2 wide receiver alongside Stefon Diggs. Gabe Davis is serviceable but is a fringe No. 2 at best. If they could add Hopkins, that would be a significant move.
Looking over the Bills schedule, their more difficult games are the two against the Dolphins and Jets. Alongside those, they also face the Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, and Dallas Cowboys.
The Bills have a more difficult schedule this year, but we can’t discount how great this team is. After all they did win 13 games last season.
Despite the number of high-caliber matchups, betting the Bills to win three fewer games this year with an improved roster isn’t a bet I’m willing to make.
New York Jets
Over 9.5 (-120)
Under 9.5 (+100)
2022 Record: 7-10
Since officially acquiring quarterback Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers before the draft, the New York Jets have been the talk of the AFC East.
The win total for this team seems quite low at 9.5, especially when you factor in getting Rodgers, and they won seven games with a carousel of mediocre quarterbacks last season.
The Jets did miss out on an opportunity to draft an offensive tackle when the Pittsburgh Steelers leapfrogged them, but they still managed to come away with perhaps the best center in the draft in Joe Tippman.
The Jets are loaded defensively and added Will McDonald IV in the first round, who will continue developing as a pass rusher.
According to Warren Sharp, the Jets are +12 in net rest this season, meaning that’s how many extra days of rest the team has over their opponents.
The Jets played outside of MetLife Stadium just two times between weeks 1 and 9; only seven of their 17 regular season games are away from New Jersey/New York. They don’t leave the NY/NJ area at all from October 5 to November 12.
I’ll take the over here.
Over 9.5 (-120)
Under 9.5 (+100)
2022 Record: 9-8
The Dolphins are a curious team heading into this season. They won nine games last season while missing starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in a handful of them. They almost beat the Bills in the postseason with third-stringer Skylar Thompson.
Defensively, the Dolphins had some holes in coverage, but they drafted Cam Smith and traded for Jalen Ramsey. The offensive line is still a concern, though.
Offensively, it will be all-systems-go once again with Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle, but they also drafted a speedster at running back in Devon Achane and are heavily rumored for Dalvin Cook.
They should go over on wins, too.
New England Patriots
Over 7.5 (-115)
Under 7.5 (-105)
2022 Record: 8-9
Of all the teams in the division, the Patriots are the hardest to crack. They won eight games last season with perhaps the worst offense we’ve ever seen from them in the 2000s and with a defensive coach as their offensive coordinator.
Quarterback Mac Jones is entering his third season with Bill Belichick as his head coach.
In the draft, they added some excellent pieces in cornerback Christian Gonzalez, edge rusher Keion White, and a versatile defender in Marte Mapu.
This offseason, the Patriots signed JuJu Smith-Schuster, a massive upgrade over the remaining receivers such as Kendrick Bourne, DeVante Parker, Tyquan Thornton, and more. They also drafted a once highly-touted prospect in Kayshon Boutte.
With a line of 7.5 wins, sure, the AFC East has gotten better, but they also play the AFC West and NFC East this season, which includes several difficult teams like the New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, and the Las Vegas Raiders, Denver Broncos, and Washington Commanders are all wild cards.
Patriots finish under here. However, that could change if they secure Hopkins.
AFC East Win Totals Best Bet
As mentioned, the AFC East will be hotly contested this season, but betting the Jets over at 9.5 wins is the best bet.
We cited the numerous positives with their schedule, the addition of Rodgers, the strength of their defense (ranked second per Pro Football Focus), and they did add some solid depth pieces.
While some may think Rodgers adjusting to the Jets could take some time, he’s been seen in offseason workouts preparing for the season, so they should be more on the same page than expected.
AFC East Win Totals Best Bet: Jets Over 9.5 (-120)
AFC East Prediction
While the Patriots may be out of this one, the Dolphins, Bills, and Jets will all fight for first place here. The division could be home to three playoff teams next season—that’s just how talented they all are.
If we were to make predictions for best bets for each team, we’d pick the over on all three of those teams as they all have their strengths, even in a tough AFC.
All of these teams will finish above .500 and be among the best the conference has to offer. There’s no reason to assume any of these teams finish worse than last year.
AFC East Predicted Final Standings
New York Jets
New England Patriots