We’re officially less than a month away from the Hall of Fame game to kick off the NFL preseason. The regular season is drawing near. Before we know it, summer will be coming to a close, the kids will be back in school, and the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions will be ramping up to start the regular season.
Here on the Playbook we've been digging into NFL win total markets for the past few weeks. After covering the AFC East, NFC West, AFC South, NFC East and NFC South, today we’ll look at the AFC North. A division that will undoubtedly be competitive.
The Cincinnati Bengals have been on top for two seasons. The Lamar Jackson contract situation has been resolved. The Steelers are much improved with a talented receiver room. The Browns should be improved with Deshaun Watson getting back into football shape.
Let’s examine the win totals odds for each team below.
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AFC North Win Totals
Cincinnati Bengals
Over 11.5 (+115)
Under 11.5 (-135)
2022 Record: 12-4
The Bengals have ruled the AFC North the past two seasons and came close to going to back-to-back Super Bowls. At its core, the team is the same as last season, with quarterback Joe Burrow and his trio of stud wide receivers in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd.
To help give them guys some rest, the team also brought in Charlie Jones and Andrei Iosivas in the NFL Draft.
In the backfield, Joe Mixon will remain on the team and could be headed for a contract restructuring. It wasn’t that long ago that his future with the team was questionable. Still, they drafted Chase Brown, a notorious bell cow in college, in case anything should ever happen to Mixon.
The Bengals were solid in coverage last year, and Cam Taylor-Britt entering his second season, should only help build off that.
Pass rush-wise, they drafted Myles Murphy in the first round, who will help Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson, giving them another talented pass rusher.
There’s no sign of this team slowing down. If you look at their schedule, their most difficult non-division opponents are the Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, and Buffalo Bills. Outside of that, they play teams like the Los Angeles Rams, Arizona Cardinals, and Indianapolis Colts. There are certainly more than five games where they could lose, and the “+” line value for the “over” isn’t quite enticing enough, given their schedule.
Baltimore Ravens
Over 10.5 (-105)
Under 10.5 (-115)
2022 Record: 10-7
After an offseason headlined by the Lamar Jackson saga, the Ravens have their man back and have added critical weapons for him to throw to this season.
Over the years that Jackson has been with the team, he hasn’t exactly had a great group of receivers. This season he has Odell Beckham Jr., Rashod Bateman, rookie Zay Flowers, tight end Mark Andrews, and several pass-catching running backs.
Jackson dealt with an injury last season and wasn’t seen after Week 13. Counting the games he appeared in, the Ravens won eight of them. For games Jackson finished, that number is seven.
After Week 13, the Ravens went 2-3 and lost in the wild-card round in the playoffs.
They still managed to win 10 games. With Jackson, those losses to the Browns and Steelers likely don’t happen and we’re looking at a 12-win team.
Outside of the moves on offense, the team has remained relatively intact. After using their first-round pick on Flowers, they didn’t pick again until the third round, where they took a linebacker in Trenton Simpson, who should help fill out a group that’s dominated.
This year, prepare for the Ravens to give the Bengals a run for the division crown. Take the “over.”
Cleveland Browns
Over 9 (-115)
Under 9 (-105)
2022 Record: 7-10
The Browns have had quite a strong offseason. In free agency, they signed defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson, safety Juan Thornhill, wide receiver Marquise Goodwin, defensive end Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, and plenty of other depth pieces.
In the NFL Draft, they scored some value with wide receiver Cedric Tillman, center Luke Wypler, offensive tackle Dawand Jones, and defensive tackle Siaki Ika.
The elephant in the room will always be quarterback Deshaun Watson, but do we see him return to his Houston Texans form this year?
Last year, across 170 pass attempts, he wasn’t effective, completing 58.2% of his passes for 1,102 yards, seven touchdowns, and five interceptions.
The backfield belongs to Nick Chubb now with Kareem Hunt out of the picture, which should help the Browns by keeping him on the field at (mostly) all times.
Finishing last in the AFC North last season, they’ll enjoy some matchups this year against the Arizona Cardinals, Chicago Bears, and Texans, but they also face the NFC West, a difficult division, and teams like the Colts could see a bit of a resurgence.
Just going down their schedule, they could drop 8-10 games this season. It’s difficult to project with so much unknown at the quarterback position.
Take the under.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Over 8.5 (-165)
Under 8.5 (+140)
2022 Record: 9-8
Don’t look now, but the Steelers actually have quite an intriguing roster. The draft saw them finally get an offensive tackle in Broderick Jones. They also added an athletic specimen at tight end in Darnell Washington and other starters in Keeanu Benton and Joey Porter Jr.
Quarterback Kenny Pickett is in his second season, and he has an incredible roster of receivers with Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Allen Robinson, tight ends Pat Freiermuth and Washington, and a backfield with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.
Defensively, they’ll once again have excellent pass rush pending health, and hopefully, with Porter Jr. coming via the draft, this will help their coverage unit.
The Steelers are likely still a third or fourth-place team in the division, but repeating their nine wins from a season ago isn’t unlikely in the slightest. This is a good football team overall.
AFC North Win Totals Best Bet
When you consider the success of the team without Jackson for five games and a limited receiving group, the Ravens should easily eclipse 10 wins this season.
Jackson will still be a weapon on the ground, and now he has two additional stellar options.
Winning a dozen games is more than possible for this team as they gun for an AFC North title.
AFC North Win Totals Best Bet: Ravens Over 10.5 (-105)
AFC North Predicted Final Standings
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers
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