The NBA and NHL postseasons are behind us, which means we have entered the dog days of the summer for sports bettors.
Now is the perfect time to prepare for the upcoming football season, as there are over 80 days left until the 2023-24 NFL campaign begins. We looked at the AFC East and NFC West earlier in the week. Today it's the turn of the AFC South.
The Jacksonville Jaguars won this division last year, but failed to reach double-digit victories in the process during a 9-8 campaign. In recent years, this division has not produced a lot of wins and the preseason betting markets reflect that.
WynnBET.com has a double-digit win total for one team, with the other three franchises boasting an over/under between six and 7.5 victories. Let’s take a look at this market and try to make sense of it before the 2023-24 NFL season begins.
AFC South Win Totals
Over 10 wins (-110)
Under 10 wins (-110)
2021 record: 9-8
Over 7.5 wins (+114)
Under 7.5 wins (-140)
2021 record: 7-10
Over 6.5 wins (-140)
Under 6.5 wins (+118)
2021 record: 4-12
Over 6 wins (-110)
Under 6 wins (-110)
2021 record: 3-13
AFC South Win Totals Best Bet
Fading the lowest win total is rarely the smartest thing to do, but it makes sense with WynnBET’s latest over/under. At a standard -110 vig, I’m comfortable betting against the Texans reaching seven wins this season.
For one, Houston hasn’t won more than four games in a year since 2019. The Texans actually have seven total wins over the last two seasons and 11 victories over their last three years combined. DeMeco Ryans is the franchise’s fourth head coach in as many years.
Better days might be ahead, but don’t expect it to change overnight. This is still a deeply-flawed roster that is handing over the keys to a rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud. Not to mention, the Texans mortgaged their future to take Will Anderson in the first round as well.
According to Pro Football Focus, the Texans had the worst overall grade in the league last year and the worst offensive mark as well. They were 31st on defense. Even if the young players are better than expected, I expect seven wins will be hard to come by in Houston.
AFC South Win Totals Best Bet: Houston Texans Under 6 Wins at -110
AFC South Predicted Final Standings
This division is pretty boring, so I don’t mind having boring picks for how things will shake out. The Jacksonville Jaguars are the deserving favorites, led by third-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence. This team has serious upside, and should win this division going away.
It is difficult to count out Mike Vrabel, but the Titans are coming off a 7-10 campaign and we should expect a similar showing this season. The Colts could take an unexpected leap if rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson is better than expected, and they are the one team that intrigues me in this division as a result.
In the end, we should expect the AFC South to go according to plan. The Jags are the only playoff team in this bunch, and might threaten a deep run if Lawrence takes another leap during his second year in this system. The Colts might flirt with playoff contention, but the AFC is too stacked for them to make it.
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