2023 Big Game Betting Guide: Breaking Down Chiefs vs. Eagles

The final matchup of the season features the Chiefs and the Eagles on Feb. 12 in Glendale, Ariz. Below is a look at the early line movement as well as other edges that might help you decide who to bet on in the big game.

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Line open: Eagles -1.0, 50.0

Current line: Eagles -1.5, 49.5

Tickets: 70% Eagles, 64.9% under

Handle: 56.3% Eagles, 81.8% under

Chiefs record: 16-3, 6-12-1 ATS

Eagles record: 16-3, 10-9 ATS

Offense vs. Defense

Chiefs offense:

-- 11th in total yards allowed

-- 18th in passing yards allowed

-- 8th in rushing yards allowed

-- 16th in scoring

Eagles defense:

-- 2nd in total yards allowed

-- 1st in passing yards allowed

-- 16th in rushing yards allowed

-- 8th in scoring

Chiefs defense:

-- 1st in total yards

-- 1st in passing yards

-- 20th in rushing yards

-- 1st in scoring

Eagles offense:

-- 3rd in total yards

-- 9th in passing yards

-- 5th in rushing yards

-- 3rd in scoring


In this battle of No. 1 seeds, you have arguably the NFL's top roster squaring off against objectively the league’s best quarterback. While it will be different for anyone to bet against Patrick Mahomes, especially after dispatching the Bengals on a high-ankle sprain, there are ample reasons to love the Eagles.

Philadelphia’s defensive line has been absolutely dominant through two postseason games. The Chiefs offense poses a greater challenge than that of the Giants and quarterback-less 49ers, but its still an edge for the Eagles, especially if Mahomes’ ankle isn’t back to 100 percent. Kansas City could be dealing with limited pass catchers as well following injuries to JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney. That would be an issue against the league’s top pass defense.

The Eagles offensive line should be able to hold up better than the Bengals did against Frank Clark and Chris Jones. The latter single-handedly wrecked the game at the point of attack for all four quarters. Philadelphia’s run game, something Cincinnati hadn’t established for most of the season, should help offset Jones’ effectiveness as well.

The play:

Eagles -1.5

The last time we saw Mahomes playing less than 100% in a title game, the Chiefs got smoked by the Bucs, 31-9. I’m not saying that will be the result here, but I’m still riding with Philly. I think the roster is more complete across the board, and its offense is no slouch. Jalen Hurts will be the MVP runner up and he’s got A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and a stable of running backs surrounding him. There isn’t an egregious flaw on the Eagles roster to expose.

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