After weeks of dozens of NCAA Tournament games, we’re down to four.
Interestingly, the teams in the Final Four are No. 4, two No. 5, and a No. 9 seed. The last time a team that wasn’t a top-three seed won the NCAA Tournament was in 2014.
The winning team? The UConn Huskies. They’re one of the teams here in the Final Four in 2023.
Here, we’ll look at the odds for each team and investigate their likelihood of winning.
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NCAA Tournament Winner Odds
UConn: -130
San Diego State: +375
Miami (FL): +500
Florida Atlantic: +600
UConn Huskies
Ranked atop the board as the only team with “-” odds, the Huskies are in an excellent position to win the tournament. In the Final Four, they’ll take on Miami, who many predicted to be upset in the Round of 64 against Drake, but here we are.
The Huskies have beaten several competent teams on the way here, most notably Gonzaga in the Elite Eight by a stunning margin of 82-54.
As the tournament winds down, the Huskies rank No. 1 in KenPom’s rankings, scoring close to 121 points per 100 possessions while holding teams to just 92 points per 100 possessions.
The Huskies receive contributions up and down their roster, which helps them generate a per-game scoring margin of +14.4, which ranks second in the country.
Led by Adama Sanogo and Jordan Hawkins, it’s fair to crown the Huskies before the Final Four even begins.
San Diego State Aztecs
Any time you take down Alabama, you deserve to be in the conversation immediately. San Diego State is with the second-best odds. A No. 5 seed, SDSU will battle the surprising No. 9 Florida Atlantic.
However, SDSU has been quite impressive over their last two games, muscling out a victory against Creighton of 57-56 and in the Sweet Sixteen, taking down Alabam 71-64.
SDSU has numerous experienced players with a roster filled primarily with seniors. The concern with SDSU against Alabama was a potential lack of explosiveness, but they showed they could withstand that.
In the Final Four, they may need to do something similar as Florida Atlantic scores approximately 115 points per 100 possessions, compared to SDSU’s 110.7. That said, SDSU has a fantastic defense, holding teams to less than 90 points per 100 possessions, which has paid huge dividends.
Miami Hurricanes
A candidate to be a first-round elimination, the Hurricanes have perhaps the most impressive past two rounds, taking down tournament favorite Houston in the Sweet Sixteen, followed by the Texas Longhorns in the Elite Eight.
This team isn’t as deep as UConn. Still, they have five players that can score double-digit points, including Norchad Omier, Jordan Miller, Nijel Pack, and more.
Scoring close to 120 points per 100 possessions, their defense leaves a bit to be desired at 101.4 points per 100 possessions.
That said, no team remaining in the tournament shoots threes better than Miami, who rank 40th in the nation in percentage at close to 37%.
Florida Atlantic Owls
As the No. 9 seed, it’s safe to assume no one expected Florida Atlantic to be here. They had generous matchups in the first two rounds with No. 8 Memphis and No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson after they knocked off Purdue.
Then, in the Sweet Sixteen, they faced a stout Tennessee Volunteers defensive unit but beat them 62-55, followed by a 79-76 win over Kansas State in the Elite Eight.
The Owls are a team led offensively by Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin. Still, the minutes are spread out, with nine players playing at least 15 minutes. This leads to fresh legs throughout the game and their second-overall ranking in the country in bench points per game at more than 33.
They face a tough San Diego State defense, but statistically speaking, Tennessee should’ve been more problematic according to defensive efficiency.
That said, San Diego State’s veteran players could have more tricks up their sleeves than the Vols.
Florida Atlantic also ranks 54th in the nation in three-point percentage at 36.53%. We cannot count them out.
