Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) controls the ball against Boston Celtics guard Marcus Smart (36) in the first quarter during game seven of the Eastern Conference Finals for the 2023 NBA playoffs at TD Garden.
Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) controls the ball against Boston Celtics guard Marcus Smart (36) in the first quarter during game seven of the Eastern Conference Finals for the 2023 NBA playoffs at TD Garden.

2023 NBA Finals MVP Odds: Tips and Predictions for the MVP Award

The NBA Finals matchup is settled. The Denver Nuggets dismantled the Los Angeles Lakers, sweeping the series. Meanwhile, in the Eastern Conference, the series went the exact opposite. The Miami Heat were up 3-0 over the Boston Celtics before the Celtics came roaring back to tie it 3-3. However, the Celtics were ultimately beaten by nearly 20 in Game 7 for the Heat to win the series.

So, the Heat and Nuggets will be playing one another for the NBA title. The Nuggets are the No. 1 seed out of the West, while the Heat are the No. 8 seed in the East—a David vs. Goliath battle.

Here, we’ll look at the top odds for the MVP and give our best bets. 

All odds are courtesy of WynnBET. 

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NBA Finals MVP Odds

  • Nikola Jokic: -312

  • Jimmy Butler: +350

  • Jamal Murray: +900

  • Caleb Martin: +3000

  • Bam Adebayo: +3500

  • Michael Porter Jr.: +10000

  • Aaron Gordon: +20000

  • Kyle Lowry: +20000

  • Duncan Robinson: +20000

  • Gabe Vincent: +25000

Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets (-312)

The odds don’t offer much value, but if the Nuggets win this series, there’s an overwhelmingly large chance that Jokic will win the award. 

Throughout this postseason, the Nuggets have played 15 games. Of those 15 games, Jokic has had a triple-double in nine. He’s scored less than 25 points in a game just five times this postseason.

He’s the best player in basketball and is utterly unstoppable. 

Jimmy Butler, F, Miami Heat (+350)

Like Jokic for the Nuggets, if the Heat win the Finals, Butler will be the catalyst. Butler had a poor shooting performance (23.8% from the field) in Game 6 against the Celtics, but he shot 42.9% or better in five of those seven games. For the Conference finals, he averaged 24.7 points, 6.1 assists, and 7.6 rebounds per game. 

Going up against Butler will likely see a lot of Gordon, who probably has the playing strength to play him but is not nearly skilled enough to keep up with him.

The Heat aren’t a great team to slow down Jokic, so Butler will need to go close to his performance against the Bucks here. 

Bam Adebayo, F/C, Miami Heat (+3500)

One intriguing wager for the NBA Finals MVP is Adebayo. If anyone can contend with Jokic, it’s Adebayo, but he has a noticeable size difference. Adebayo is a few inches shorter and 30 pounds or so lighter.

Again, if the Heat win, Adebayo will likely have a lot to do with it, as they’ll need to slow Jokic down a bit. 

Adebayo averaged just 14.9 points per game in the Eastern Conference Finals, so he’ll need to up that total for a chance to win this award. 

If he can approach his regular season average of 20.4 points and 9.2 rebounds, Adebayo will have a stat sheet worthy of winning a prestigious accolade. 

That said, he’s +3500 for a reason—going up against Jokic is, no, well, joke.

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