When it comes to betting on division futures, perhaps no division will be as important to get right as the NFC North.
This division has been dominated by the Green Bay Packers of late, but quarterback Aaron Rodgers is gone. The Minnesota Vikings are coming off a first-place finish in the NFC North, though advanced metrics suggest they were a bit fortunate to do so.
With the Chicago Bears fresh off a 32nd-place finish in the NFL, that leaves the Detroit Lions as the surprising favorites in the NFC North. They have the highest win total of this quartet, despite missing the playoffs last year and the fact they haven’t won the division since 1993.
If you are able to look into the future and see how things shake out in the NFC North, you should be able to make some money by attacking the win totals at WynnBET.com’s online sportsbook.
This article is part of a series examining win totals and we have already covered the AFC East, NFC West, AFC South, and NFC East.
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NFC North Win Totals
Detroit Lions
Over 9.5 (-120)
Under 9.5 (+100)
2022 Record: 9-8
The Lions, who went 9-8 and just missed the playoffs a season ago, enter the 2023-24 campaign with high expectations. I was down on Detroit compared to the market last year, which looked good after a 1-6 start. But the Lions won five of their last six games, and really showed me something in Year 2 of the Dan Campbell era.
Still, the Lions haven’t won double-digit games since 2014 and haven’t made the playoffs since 2016. Jared Goff is a solid starting quarterback, but perhaps rookie Hendon Hooker ends up being the long-term answer. For this season, we expect Detroit to win enough games to threaten this total.
Minnesota Vikings
Over 8.5 (-130)
Under 8.5 (+110)
2022 Record: 13-4
Much was made about the Vikings during their 13-4 campaign last season. Nobody seemed to believe in Minnesota, despite it finishing first in the NFC North. The Vikings had an expected record of 8.4 wins and 8.6 losses, suggesting they vastly overachieved.
However, the market has already corrected for that with this win total. Kevin O’Connell proved he is a good coach in his first year at the helm, and Kirk Cousins is arguably the best quarterback in this division. With Justin Jefferson coming off an Offensive Player of the Year campaign, I’m going to be higher on the Vikings than most.
Green Bay Packers
Over 7.5 (-140)
Under 7.5 (+118)
2022 Record: 8-9
It has been a long time since we have had question marks surrounding the quarterback position in Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers took the baton from Brett Favre in 2008, and now it is finally Jordan Love’s turn after he was drafted in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft.
Love has only played in 10 games in his professional career, so there is no telling what he will provide for the Packers as the starting signal caller this season. With that much uncertainty, we might be getting a discount on a Packers team that has cleared this win total in four consecutive seasons.
Chicago Bears
Over 7.5 (-115)
Under 7.5 (-105)
2022 Record: 3-14
After finishing with the worst record in the NFL last season, expectations are much higher for the Chicago Bears this time around. Many are expecting quarterback Justin Fields to take a huge leap in his third season after flashing some serious potential last year.
The team around Fields has been improved through the draft, trades, and free agency. Still, going from worst to playoff contention is a tall ask. That’s why we are seeing a win total of 7.5 on the Bears at this point in the summer.
NFC North Win Totals Best Bet
I’m taking Over 8.5 wins for the Vikings because the market has adjusted too much. Gone are the days where Minnesota’s win total would have opened at like 10.5 after last season, leading most of us to place an under ticket.
With this total being a touch low, I’m comfortable betting on the Vikings staying in the mix. I actually believe they should be the favorites to win the division, as Cousins and Co. continue to get disrespected.
NFC North Win Totals Best Bet: Vikings Over 8.5 (-130)
NFC North Predicted Final Standings
I’m buying the discounted Vikings, and fading the Love era in Green Bay. The Lions will certainly be in the mix, but ultimately they will have to settle for a Wild Card berth this year. The Bears should take a leap, but they still have a long way to go until they are contending in the NFC.
Minnesota Vikings
Detroit Lions
Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers
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