July is in full swing and that means a new season of football is fast approaching. With preseason getting underway in August, we're spending the month of July breaking down the popular NFL win total markets on WynnBET.com.
Over the past few weeks we have already looked at the AFC East, NFC West, AFC South, and NFC East. Today we examine the NFC South.
When the season ended in early January, none of the quartet who make up the NFC South finished on above .500. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the division with a 8-9 record and the Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons all compiled an identical 7-10 record.
Looking at the odds here at WynnBET, all but one team has an over/under of less than nine wins. Below, we’ll examine each team, provide a best bet and predict how this division shakes out.
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NFC South Win Totals
Atlanta Falcons
Over 8.5 (-115)
Under 8.5 (-105)
2022 Record: 7-10
The Falcons were a fantastic team rushing the ball last season, ranking second in the league with 159.9 rushing yards per game.
This year, they’re turning the reins over to quarterback Desmond Ridder full-time as he looks to get tight end Kyle Pitts, wide receiver Drake London and rookie running back Bijan Robinson into the fold.
If you look at the Falcons' schedule, they have an easy first few weeks. Their first six opponents include the Carolina Panthers, Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Three of those six games include quarterbacks who have yet to make two starts in their NFL careers, and the inter-divisional Buccaneers are expected to be worse with Baker Mayfield under center.
Beyond the first six weeks, the Falcons have easier opponents in the Arizona Cardinals and another matchup with the Buccaneers. They also face the Indianapolis Colts, and Chicago Bears.
In addition to Robinson, the Falcons added Matthew Bergeron in the draft, a fantastic run-blocking guard who should further help their run game.
With Robinson as a top candidate for the Rookie of the Year award, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Falcons hit 10 wins.
Carolina Panthers
Over 7.5 (-120)
Under 7.5 (+100)
2022 Record: 7-10
The Carolina Panthers should be viewed much more favorably in terms of winning this division. Yes, the team lost wide receiver D.J. Moore in their trade for the No. 1 overall pick, but they got Bryce Young and drafted Jonathan Mingo, Chandler Zavala, and others to solidify the offense.
Young will have a group of receivers, including Mingo, Terrace Marshall Jr., Adam Thielen, and DJ Chark, along with Hayden Hurst at tight end and running back Miles Sanders.
The offensive line is rock solid, and their defense has solid coverage players in Donte Jackson and Jaycee Horn.
The 7.5 line is a bit low here, even with a rookie quarterback under center.
New Orleans Saints
Over 9.5 (+118)
Under 9.5 (-140)
2022 Record: 7-10
The Saints drafted pass rusher Bryan Bresee with their top selection and added wide receiver A.T. Perry later on, as well as running back Kendre Miller. These were all solid draft choices, but even with quarterback Derek Carr coming into the locker room, this 9.5 line might be slightly overrating them.
Carr is viewed more favorably than Andy Dalton, who the Saints started last year. But if you look at the numbers, Dalton was more efficient, yet had 700 or so fewer passing yards in one less game. In terms of touchdowns, Dalton had 18 compared to Carr’s 24.
Carr should help wide receiver Chris Olave perform statistically. Still, we’d pump the breaks a bit on over 9.5 wins with a shallow receiving core beyond Olave, a running game in question with Alvin Kamara’s possible suspension, and a pass-rushing unit that left a bit to be desired last season.
We shouldn’t consider Carr a massive upgrade over Dalton right now.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over 6.5 (+105)
Under 6.5 (-125)
2022 Record: 8-9
Going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield will feel bad this season for Buccaneers fans. The receiving core is the same, but the offensive line will be slightly worse this year. Adding Cody Mauch in the draft will help, but Matt Feiler at left tackle is OK, but he’s not exactly a top tackle in the league.
The addition of Calijah Kancey will certainly impact the interior with Vita Vea. However, depending on Logan Hall and an underwhelming Joe Tyron-Shoyinka off the edge could lead to some low sack totals.
The Buccaneers were the best team in the division record-wise last year, so they’ll face more difficult opponents with a worse team than last year. Taking the under isn’t a bad idea at all here.
NFC South Win Totals Best Bet
The betting markets are certainly underrating the Panthers here. We saw the Panthers improve despite trading Christian McCaffrey last year, and they won seven games with a bunch of quarterbacks, including Mayfield, P.J. Walker, and Sam Darnold.
Young is a fantastic quarterback, and though he’ll be a rookie, he has a solid enough receiving group and offensive line around him to help produce in his first season in the NFL.
Take the Panthers over.
NFC South Win Totals Best Bet: Panthers Over 7.5 Wins (-120)
NFC South Predicted Final Standings
We firmly believe the Panthers are a strong dark horse to win the division. Overall, they’re the most complete roster in the NFC South, despite the question marks with a rookie quarterback. Adding Sanders will help solidify a backfield without McCaffrey, and the receiving group has enough to make up for Moore getting traded.
Don’t be shocked to see the Panthers, under new head coach Frank Reich, take a strong step forward.
Carolina Panthers
Atlanta Falcons
New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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