I’m uncomfortably confident in the Eagles this Sunday, so much so that I’m now convincing myself that the opposite will happen.
But part of my belief in Philadelphia stems from the big game two years ago when Tampa Bay embarrassed Kansas City, 31-9. I think that matchup could be a precursor for what might happen this weekend.
Assuming there’s precedent that justifies betting against the best quarterback in the NFL could ultimately prove to be foolish, but there are a few obvious similarities.
For starters, Patrick Mahomes is unlikely to be 100% on Sunday as he continues to manage a high-ankle sprain. You’ll recall that he was nursing a toe injury against the Bucs and was visibly limited. That was the case again against the Bengals in the conference championship game. Mahomes’ ankle deteriorated as the game went on to the point where he couldn’t do anything without a limp by the end of the game. He was still heroic, sure, but it remains a significant layer to this game nonetheless.
That’s because just like the Bucs back in the 2020 season, Philadelphia has the better roster overall, particularly on defense. The Eagles ranked second in total yards allowed, first in passing yards allowed, eighth in scoring and third in takeaways during the regular season. That group has been dominant during two postseason games, particularly along the defensive line with Fletcher Cox, Josh Sweat, Haason Reddick, Jordan Davis, Jordan Davis and Javon Hargrave.
The Bucs hit Mahomes nine times two years ago with Shaq Barrett accounting for four QB hits all by himself. The Bucs totaled 3.0 sacks, two interceptions and held Kansas City’s offense to just 3-of-13 on third down and 0-3 in the red zone.
Now I’m not saying the Chiefs won’t score a touchdown against the Eagles, but Philadelphia is uniquely equipped to stifle Mahomes just as the Bucs did.
The Eagles have edges on offense as well. Kansas City hit Tom Brady just twice in that blowout loss, and Philadelphia has a standout offensive line that could protect Jalen Hurts in a similar manner. The Eagles have the fifth-ranked rushing offense as well, and that balance should work in Philly’s favor.
When the Eagles do need to rely on Hurts, the likely MVP runner-up has Dallas Goedert, DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown to throw to. That’s similar to Brady having Rob Gronkowski, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette at his disposal.
My gut tells me that Philadelphia is too complete, too multiple and too deep to bet against. I’d be on the Eagles even if Mahomes was 100%, which I think would be virtually impossible given the long recovery of most high-ankle sprains.
The Eagles still have to play well, and Hurts, despite his big-game experience in college, will have to show he’s ready for the NFL’s biggest stage. But for as long as the line stays below Eagles -3.0, I’ll be on the Birds. The fact that we’ve seen these Chiefs get blown out in a title game just two years ago only adds to my confidence.
New to WynnBET? CLICK your state below to claim your new-user bonus: AZ | CO | IN | LA | MI | NJ | NY | TN | VA
