We were treated to an exceptional opening weekend of the NFL Playoffs as the Wild Card Round was electric from start to finish. Now we turn our attention to the four-game slate in the Divisional Round.
Below you’ll find a betting breakdown of each game with info and edges that might help you when making your picks.
Jacksonville Jaguars (10-8, 9-8-1 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3, 5-11-1 ATS)
Spread: Chiefs -9.0
Moneyline: Jaguars +360, Chiefs -465
The Jaguars are massive underdogs in what is a rematch from Week 10, a game Kansas City won 27-17. Every number will tell you that the Chiefs will win this game in a landslide, but there’s something about this surging Jaguars team that tells me they can hang tough.
Kansas City was far from invincible down the stretch as both the Texans and the Broncos took them to the limit over the final month. The Chiefs have notoriously been unable to cover big spreads and nine points as a lot in a Divisional Round game.
The Chiefs rank first in total offense, passing yards and scoring, which makes them hard to bet against. I’m just a believer in Doug Pederson, Trevor Lawrence and that sneaky deep group of skill players in Jacksonville.
I’ll probably leave this spread alone and opt to tease one of these sides, if not both in order to set up a nice, tasty middle.
New York Giants (10-7, 14-4-1 ATS) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, 8-9 ATS)
Spread: Eagles -7.5
Moneyline: Giants +280, Eagles -350
I’ll be honest, I’m jaded from what I saw in the Wild Card Round. Just like the Jaguars, I’m also a believer in the Giants. Daniel Jones is playing the best ball of his career, and that Giants defensive line has been dominant of late.
It’s also hard to forget that New York’s backups lost by just six in Week 18 to an Eagles team that played its starters in need of a win to clinch the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
Every single edge you’ll find tells you the Eagles will dominate. Philadelphia’s offense ranks third in total yards, fifth in rushing yards and third in scoring. Its defense ranks second in total yards, first in passing yards and eighth in scoring.
I think the Eagles likely win, which would steer me clear of a dart throw on New York’s moneyline, but I think the Giants are capable of getting inside the number. This is another one where you could tease either side.
Cincinnati Bengals (13-4, 12-4-1 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (14-3, 8-8-1 ATS)
Spread: Bills -5.0
Moneyline: Bengals +190. Bills -230
Last time we saw these teams, the Bengals were driving midway through the first quarter with a 7-3 lead in Week 17. That game was of course suspended and ultimately cancelled following the harrowing injury to Damar Hamlin.
Cincinnati has a legitimate gripe that this isn’t being played at a neutral field, but it might end up being an opportunity for bettors who want to side with the underdog here.
Neither of these teams were impressive in the Wild Card Round with each failing to cover as huge favorites. Buffalo’s issues might be a bit more concerning given Josh Allen continues to turn the ball over in plus territory, and the defense sorely misses Von Miller.
Getting five points with the reigning AFC Champs is hard to argue with, especially given that Cincinnati has been by far the more profitable team this season between the two. Both offenses have sizeable edges in the passing game which means a shootout is likely in order. A key fourth quarter takeaway will likely decide this one.
I think Cincinnati is the play here with a dabble on Bengals moneyline.
Dallas Cowboys (13-5, 10-7-1 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (14-4, 12-6 ATS)
Spread: 49ers -3.5
Moneyline: Cowboys +155, 49ers -3.5
The 49ers have been on a warpath lately with the best defense in football and an offense that has scored at least 30 points in seven of their last nine games. San Francisco is healthy with Deebo Samuel back in the fold and we saw just how devastating that offense can be with Kyle Shanahan getting everyone involved.
I do think the Cowboys are uniquely equipped to keep up with the 49ers, though. The issue is that Dallas is such a turbulent team on both sides of the football that it’s a hard group to trust. The Cowboys dismantled the Buccaneers on Monday, but this 49ers team is a far superior opponent.
Both of these teams excel in getting takeaways with the Cowboys defense ranking first during the regular season and the 49ers ranking third. The issue for Dallas is that its offense, Dak Prescott in particular, is far more turnover prone.
You can make cases for both sides here, but I’ll lean with the 49ers given they’ve been so profitable for me this season. Right now 62% of the tickets at WynnBET are on San Francisco while 68% of the money is on Dallas.