The March Madness field is set, and so too is the South Region of the NCAA Tournament. The region is headed by No. 1 seed Alabama, a team considered a favorite to win the entire tournament.
To get to that point, however, they’ll need to complete the East Region, and here, we’ll look at the odds of each team winning the East, provide our top picks, and pick an upset for the Round of 64.
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South Region Odds to Win Region
Alabama: +140
Arizona: +275
Baylor: +550
Creighton: +700
Virginia: +1000
San Diego State: +1500
West Virginia: +1500
Maryland: +3000
Missouri: +3000
Utah State: +3000
NC State: +6000
Charleston: +10000
UC Santa Barbara: +10000
Furman: +20000
SE Missouri State: +200000
Texas A&M Corpus Christi: +200000
Round of 64 Upset Prediction
Upset Pick: No. 10 Utah State over No. 7 Missouri
Considering Utah State is the favorite here betting line-wise, it’s hard to really call this an upset, but based on the seedings, you could say that it is.
Utah State is ranked 18th in the KenPom rankings, while Missouri is way down at 51.
The Aggies from Utah State allow 70 points per game which are 173rd in the nation, but they’re also 28th in the nation in offense, averaging more than 79 points per game. To add, the Aggies shoot 48% from the floor and have a great player in Steven Ashworth, who averages 16.3 points and 4.5 assists per game. He also shoots 44.3% behind from three-point range.
Missouri also scores well, but they’re an even worse defense, allowing 74.8 points per game, which is 299th in the country.
There will be a lot of scoring here, but the Aggies will edge them out.
Picks to Win South Region
Alabama Crimson Tide: +140
The Crimson Tide have the top odds and for a good reason. They have the best player in the country Brandon Miller who will most likely be a top-three draft pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. Alabama ranks No. 3 in the KenPom rankings, and inside those same rankings, they’re third in defensive efficiency. That said, they allow 69.5 points per game, which ranks 155th in the nation.
Offensively, the Crimson Tide are sixth in the country, averaging close to 83 points per game, and a big part of that is their depth. They rank 20th in points off the bench, with about 27 per game. Rylan Griffen and Noah Gurley are excellent pieces.
Creighton Bluejays: +700
Ranking 13th in KenPom’s rankings, the Bluejays should be considered a dangerous team in this tournament. They were just 3-9 against Quad 1 teams but went 18-3 against Quads 2-4.
They’re a great offensive team, ranking 28th in efficiency, 57th in points per game (76.8), and shooting about 25 three-pointers per game.
Defensively they perform well, too, ranking fifth in defensive rebounds per game and allowing less than 68 points per game.
The key to their team is big-man Ryan Kalkbrenner, who is hard to defend at seven-foot-one. Look for him, Baylor Scheierman, and Trey Alexander to wreak havoc in this tournament.
Arizona Wildcats: +275
Arizona does a great job at putting the “wild” in Wildcats. They rank top 10 in the pace of play and have about 73 possession per game. The team lost Dalen Terry, Christian Koloko, and Ben Mathurin to the NBA, but they’ve continued their brand of fast-paced basketball. They shoot 38% from the three-point range and 56% from the floor. He may not quite be seven feet tall, but Azuolas Tubelis is a star, averaging nearly 20 points per game and just over nine rebounds.
The No. 4 offense in the league in points per game (83.1) and ranking 10th in the KenPom rankings, Arizona should breeze through the tournament until they face Creighton in the Sweet Sixteen.
