Colorado Avalanche center Nazem Kadri (91) scores the game-winning goal on Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy (88) in overtime in game four of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports.
Colorado Avalanche center Nazem Kadri (91) scores the game-winning goal on Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy (88) in overtime in game four of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports.

Avalanche vs. Lightning Betting Preview: Odds, Splits, and Prediction for Game 5 of Stanley Cup Final

After an overtime win in Game 4, the Colorado Avalanche can put a bow on the 2021-22 NHL season in Friday’s Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final.

Colorado squeaked out a 3-2 overtime win on Tampa Bay’s home ice on Wednesday. In his first game back from a broken finger, Nazem Kadri delivered the game-winner in OT to give the Avs a 3-1 lead in the series.

Can Colorado finish the job and secure its first Cup since 2001?

Let’s take a look at the betting information at WynnBET’s online sportsbook and try to project what will transpire on the ice. All information as of Friday morning.

Betting Odds

  • Puck line: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-175)/Colorado -1.5 (+145)

  • Moneyline: Lightning +160/Avalanche -180

  • Total: 6 (Under -120)

Betting Splits

Puck Line

  • 94.2% of tickets on Colorado

  • 99.6% of money on Colorado

Moneyline

  • 69.4% of tickets on Colorado

  • 84.2% of money on Colorado

Total

  • 75.9% of tickets on Over

  • 85.4% of money on Over

Injury Report

Colorado

  • Andre Burakovksy — Day-to-day (Hand)

  • Samuel Girard — Out

Tampa Bay

  • Erik Cernak — Day-to-day (Lower body)

One Trend To Know

The current total for Game 5 is six goals, with the under juiced to -120. Wednesday’s 3-2 victory by Colorado marked the first time all series that the total didn’t go over, which probably explains why early action is on the over ahead of Friday.

Each of the first three games of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final went over the total, starting with Colorado’s 4-3 victory in Game 1. This includes Game 2, when the Lightning didn’t even score in a 7-0 loss to the Avalanche. Tampa Bay then did its part in a 6-2 victory in Game 3.

How many goals are in store for Friday’s Game 5?

Prediction

Other than a horrible Game 2 prediction, I’ve nailed every game of this series thus far. I’ve also been on Colorado to wrap this thing up in five games for a bit now, and this franchise has a chance to do just that in front of its loyal fans.

Compare Friday’s betting odds to the last time these two teams met in Colorado and you will see that the oddsmakers believe that will happen. The Avalanche were a -155 favorite on the moneyline in Game 2, but are priced at -170 to win this upcoming matchup.

You can never quite count out the defending champs. Tampa Bay was down 3-2 to the Toronto Maples Leafs in the first round and faced a 0-2 deficit in the conference finals round. But winning three consecutive games while facing elimination is another thing.

Teams that take a 3-1 lead in a best-of-seven Cup Final are 35-1 (.972) winning the series. I believe the Avs finish the job on Friday, and will hoist up the Cup for the first time since 2001.

Prediction: Colorado 4, Tampa Bay 2