A team could punch its ticket to the NBA Finals for the second consecutive night, when the Boston Celtics host the Miami Heat for Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Friday.
After winning a pivotal Game 5, Boston is now favored by a comfortable margin in tonight’s matchup. With a win, the Celtics would capture their first NBA Finals appearance since 2010 and compete with the Golden State Warriors for a championship.
Let’s take a look at the latest bettings odds at WynnBET’s online sportsbook and what you need to know before betting on tonight's matchup.
Betting Odds
Spread: Celtics -9 (-108)
Moneyline: Heat +325/Celtics -425
Total: 201 (-108)
Betting Splits
All splits info as of Friday morning on May 27.
Spread
69.5% of tickets on Miami
57.6% of money on Miami
Moneyline
78.5% of tickets on Miami
52.1% of money on Boston
Total
83.9% of tickets on Over
89.9% of money on Over
Injury Report
Boston Celtics
Marcus Smart — Questionable, Right Ankle Sprain
Robert Williams — Questionable, Left Knee Soreness
Miami Heat
Tyler Herro — Questionable, Groin Strain
Kyle Lowry — Questionable, Hamstring Strain
Max Strus — Questionable, Hamstring Strain
PJ Tucker — Questionable Knee Irritation
Gabe Vincent — Questionable, Hamstring Strain
One Trend To Know
You might think the spread is too high and be tempted to bet on Miami. You are not alone. The betting splits as of Friday indicate that is the mindset of most bettors. But, if you are doing that, you also have to believe that the Miami Heat can win this game on the road.
According to this tweet from @ClevTA, the last time a favorite won the game but did not cover the spread was Game 4 of the Golden State Warriors-Memphis Grizzlies series in the Western Conference semifinals. The winner of each matchup has also covered the spread in 20 consecutive games since then.
For the postseason, the team that has won the game has also covered the spread in 89% of the contests.
Time to dust this off. The winner of 20 straight NBA playoff gms have also covered spread. No fav has won but not covered since Gm4 of Grizz/GS series. 75-9 (89%) of gms including the play in games this year have been pick the winner & they cover. Dog ML or fav - pts has been $ https://t.co/jZqrHouDaE
— TA (@ClevTA) May 27, 2022
This makes sense without looking at those numbers, of course. This has been a postseason filled with blowouts, which has been one of the most-discussed storylines over the last couple of weeks. Whether you are betting on the underdog or the favorite, the number has rarely come into play.
Just look at last night's matchup for an example of this. Dallas opened as a 7.5-point underdog before money came in on them and the number closed at 6 points. The Mavericks made a late charge in the contest, but the Warriors still eliminated them with a 120-110 victory.
Don’t make the same mistake tonight. If you think Boston is going to win this game, be more comfortable laying the big number. For all we know, Miami could be too injured to make this game competitive or the team might pack it in at some point in the second half. But if you think the Heat can make this a game, consider the moneyline price of +325 for a bigger payout.
Prediction
After all that, I would be a hypocrite if I didn’t take Boston to win big. I’ve been sitting on a Celtics to win this series ticket since before Game 2. It led me to betting on Boston in a pivotal Game 5 last time out.
The low total suggests that we could see another slugfest between these two teams. I would expect Boston to eventually pull away in the second half — just like the Celtics did in Game 5. In my opinion, there is no need to overthink this. Let's get ready for the NBA Finals.
Score prediction: Boston 105, Miami 90
