Am I a player props guy now? I might be.
Two NFL prime time games have come and gone and I’m 4-2 with my player prop picks. I hit the over on Darrell Henderson’s rushing total last night as well as the over on Allen Robinson’s reception total, but missed on my longshot bet of the Rams scoring a defensive touchdown.
Let’s get back at it tonight for the final game of the NFL Week 1 slate. It’s the Baltimore Ravens taking on the Las Vegas Raiders. The Ravens enter the game as 4-point favorites and the total for the game is at 50.5 points. Check out our betting preview for our full breakdown of the game.
But for now, let’s get into some player props. All odds listed are via WynnBET Sportsbook.
Lamar Jackson Under 215.5 Passing Yards (-115)
We all know Lamar Jackson isn’t exactly a pocket passer, but he still has the ability to sling the rock when he has to. With that being said, he has never averaged 215.5 passing yards per game in a season. He and the Ravens only averaged 183.8 passing yards per game last year, the fewest among all NFL teams. Even in his MVP season in 2019 he still only averaged 208.5 passing yards per game.
You could counter that point by saying the Raiders pass defense is among the worst in the NFL, which would be a fair point. You could also say that with how banged up the Ravens backfield is, they’ll be forced to throw the ball more, which could also be a valid point.
Despite all of that, I still think this number is too high. He only threw for more than 215 yards three times all last season. Give me the under.
Henry Ruggs III Over 35.5 Receiving Yards -125
I’m of the belief that Ruggs III will take a step forward this season after a largely disappointing rookie campaign, and I think that starts tonight. The Raiders didn’t acquire any new talent at wide receiver and I think it’s because they still believe Ruggs is their guy.
He doesn’t even need to improve much on last season’s production for him to hit the over on his receiving yards prop tonight, as his season average in 2020 for yards per game came in at 34.8.
With him being a deep threat (17.4 yards per reception) he may only need a catch or two for him to hit the over on this total tonight. This is my favorite player prop of the bunch.
Darren Waller Anytime TD +110
Darren Waller has established himself as one of Derek Carr’s favorite targets, and that holds especially true in the red zone. The tight end led the Raiders in receiving touchdowns last season with nine, and will once again serve as the safety blanket for Carr in this pivotal season.
With their usual goalline back, Josh Jacobs, listed as questionable for tonight’s game, they may opt to throw the ball when they get close to the endzone instead of handing it off to a running back.
I love the value on this prop bet at +110.
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This article was originally published on fansided.com/betsided as 3 Player Props to Bet for Ravens vs. Raiders.